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Course info
KEM / EAPR
:
Course description
Department/Unit / Abbreviation
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KEM
/
EAPR
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Academic Year
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2023/2024
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Academic Year
|
2023/2024
|
Title
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Economic Analysis and Forecasting
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Form of course completion
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Exam
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Form of course completion
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Exam
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Accredited / Credits
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Yes,
6
Cred.
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Type of completion
|
Oral
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Type of completion
|
Oral
|
Time requirements
|
Lecture
2
[Hours/Week]
Tutorial
4
[Hours/Week]
|
Course credit prior to examination
|
Yes
|
Course credit prior to examination
|
Yes
|
Automatic acceptance of credit before examination
|
Yes in the case of a previous evaluation 4 nebo nic.
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Included in study average
|
YES
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Language of instruction
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Czech
|
Occ/max
|
|
|
|
Automatic acceptance of credit before examination
|
Yes in the case of a previous evaluation 4 nebo nic.
|
Summer semester
|
0 / -
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0 / -
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0 / -
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Included in study average
|
YES
|
Winter semester
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46 / -
|
0 / -
|
0 / -
|
Repeated registration
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NO
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Repeated registration
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NO
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Timetable
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Yes
|
Semester taught
|
Winter semester
|
Semester taught
|
Winter semester
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Minimum (B + C) students
|
10
|
Optional course |
Yes
|
Optional course
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Yes
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Language of instruction
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Czech
|
Internship duration
|
0
|
No. of hours of on-premise lessons |
|
Evaluation scale |
1|2|3|4 |
Periodicity |
každý rok
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Evaluation scale for credit before examination |
S|N |
Periodicita upřesnění |
|
Fundamental theoretical course |
No
|
Fundamental course |
Yes
|
Fundamental theoretical course |
No
|
Evaluation scale |
1|2|3|4 |
Evaluation scale for credit before examination |
S|N |
Substituted course
|
None
|
Preclusive courses
|
N/A
|
Prerequisite courses
|
N/A
|
Informally recommended courses
|
N/A
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Courses depending on this Course
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N/A
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Histogram of students' grades over the years:
Graphic PNG
,
XLS
|
Course objectives:
|
Introduce students to problems of economic and econometric modeling at the micro and macro level, where the emphasis is placed on the selection of appropriate forecasting models and the basic tendencies of development of micro and macro variables, economic interpretation and verification of results. Explain the possibilities of using economic and econometric models for forecasting purposes.
|
Requirements on student
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Assignment: preparation and presentation of its own economic forecasts of economic variables selected Examination: oral Requirements Specification is in Courseware.
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Content
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construction of a dynamic structural model of economic forecasting
rational expectations, Lucas critique, the time inconsistency of economic policy measures
behavior of households, population growth
behavior of firms
price and wage rigidity
exogenous and endogenous technological progress
government and fiscal policy
central bank and monetary policy
open economy
analysis of impulse responses
maximum likelihood function
Bayesian approach, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
estimates using Dynare
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Activities
|
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Fields of study
|
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Guarantors and lecturers
|
|
Literature
|
-
Basic:
Friedman, Milton. Metodologie pozitivní ekonomie. Praha : Grada, 1997. ISBN 80-7169-521-1.
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Basic:
Monetární makroanalýza
(Kodera, Jan; Van Quang, Tran)
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Basic:
Costa, Celso José Junior. Understanding DSGE Models: Theory and Applications. Vernon Press, 2016. ISBN 9781622730384.
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Recommended:
Hušek, Roman; Pelikán, Jan. Aplikovaná ekonometrie : teorie a praxe. Praha : Professional Publishing, 2003. ISBN 80-86419-29-0.
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Recommended:
Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. S. Foundations of International Macroeconomics. The MIT Press, 1996.
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Recommended:
Gali, Jordi. Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications - Second Edition. Princeton, 2015. ISBN 0691164789.
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Recommended:
Walsh, Carl E. Monetary theory and policy. 2nd ed. Cambridge : MIT Press, 2003. ISBN 978-0-262-23231-9.
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Recommended:
Holub, T.; Čihák, M. Teorie růstové politiky. Praha: Vysoká škola ekonomická, Národohospodářská fakulta, 2000. ISBN 80-245-0126-0.
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On-line library catalogues
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Time requirements
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All forms of study
|
Activities
|
Time requirements for activity [h]
|
Preparation for an examination (30-60)
|
38
|
Contact hours
|
78
|
Graduate study programme term essay (40-50)
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40
|
Total
|
156
|
|
Prerequisites
|
Knowledge - students are expected to possess the following knowledge before the course commences to finish it successfully: |
achieve knowledge of basic courses in economics, mathematics and statistics. |
Skills - students are expected to possess the following skills before the course commences to finish it successfully: |
distinguish the basic micro and macroeconomic approaches according their assumptions |
interpret the values of micro and macroeconomic variables |
Competences - students are expected to possess the following competences before the course commences to finish it successfully: |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Learning outcomes
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Knowledge - knowledge resulting from the course: |
explain the methodology of modern economic forecasting
|
explain advanced oeconomic models |
Skills - skills resulting from the course: |
analyze the structure of economic forecasting models
|
formulate their own simple models |
apply mathematical procedures for models solving |
apply statistical methods for models estimation |
interpret the results of models |
Competences - competences resulting from the course: |
N/A |
|
Assessment methods
|
Knowledge - knowledge achieved by taking this course are verified by the following means: |
Oral exam |
Seminar work |
Skills - skills achieved by taking this course are verified by the following means: |
Seminar work |
Competences - competence achieved by taking this course are verified by the following means: |
Oral exam |
|
Teaching methods
|
Knowledge - the following training methods are used to achieve the required knowledge: |
Lecture |
Practicum |
Individual study |
Self-study of literature |
Skills - the following training methods are used to achieve the required skills: |
Practicum |
Competences - the following training methods are used to achieve the required competences: |
Practicum |
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